India’s economy to become 3rd largest, surpass Japan, Germany by 2030

India is well poised to become the third-largest economy by 2030, surpassing four developed nations Japan, Germany, Britain and France, according to projections by a US government agency.

The estimate by the United States Department for Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA), based on data collated by World Bank and IMF, assumes the Indian economy will expand annually at an average 7.4% to $6.84 trillion by 2030. This will make it bigger than that of the economies of Japan ($6.37 trillion) and Germany ($4.38 trillion).

What’s more, India’s annual economic output will be almost double that of Britain ($3.6 trillion) and France ($3.44 trillion) in the next 15 years.

International Monetary Fund’s managing director Christine Lagarde, who has repeatedly coined India as a “bright spot”, has forecast that the Asia’s third largest will surpass Germany by 2030.

India’s fast growing young population is perceived to boost economic activity and help the nation outpace ageing developed nations.

Rising aspirations in the world’s second most populous country is driving demand for mobile phones, electronic goods, cars and houses.

The government’s apex think-tank Niti Aayog on Sunday projected the Indian economy to grow by an annual average rate of 8% in the next 15 years.

“The future looks extremely bright...There is a very good case that we should over the next 15-16 years grow at 8%,” Niti Aayog’s vice chairman Arvind Panagariya has said.

After 15-16 years, India’s gross domestic product or the size of the economy will touch Rs 469 lakh crore from Rs 137 lakh crore in 2015-16, he said while reeling out the numbers in terms of the local currency.

The US will continue to be the global leader with an annual economic output, measured in terms of gross domestic product, of $24.8 trillion in 2030. But it is estimated to grow by an average annual 2.1% from $16.97 trillion in 2016, as per the USDA data.

China will close in the gap with the US by growing its GDP by 5.3% to $19.2 trillion by 2030, from $9.4 trillion in 2016.

Last month, management consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) portrayed India to emerge as a super-power ranked only after the United States and China.

By 2040, India’s GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) will grow to $30 trillion from $8.7 trillion in 2016, while US will grow from $18.6 trillion to $28.3 trillion, PwC said in a report titled “The World in 2050”.

China will continue to lead the chart with its GDP rising from $21.3 trillion to $47.4 trillion by 2040.

However, India’s GDP measured in terms of dollar will grow to $28 trillion to emerge as third biggest by 2050, only after China ($49.9 trillion) and the US ($34.1 trillion), PwC said.