South India to witness extreme rainfall by end of this century: IIT study | Latest News India - Hindustan Times
close_game
close_game

South India to witness extreme rainfall by end of this century: IIT study

Hindustan Times, Kolkata | By
Sep 03, 2020 11:18 AM IST

The scientists have also projected that extreme rainfall may increase in the Arabian Sea and south-Asian countries, including Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia.

The pattern of monsoon in India could undergo a major shift by the end of this century with southern India likely to register the maximum increase in extreme rainfall compared to states in central and north India, researchers from the Indian Institute of Kharagpur in West Bengal have said.

As the Indian monsoon plays a crucial role in agriculture, which engages nearly half of the country’s population a possible shift in the rains, as projected by the IIT study, could have a significant impact on agriculture. (Amal KS/HT Photo)
As the Indian monsoon plays a crucial role in agriculture, which engages nearly half of the country’s population a possible shift in the rains, as projected by the IIT study, could have a significant impact on agriculture. (Amal KS/HT Photo)

The scientists have also projected that extreme rainfall may increase in the Arabian Sea and south-Asian countries, including Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia.

Hindustan Times - your fastest source for breaking news! Read now.

“In the worst-case scenario of climate change, rainfall could increase by 2.7 mm per day in north India with the Himalayan foothills expected to receive the heaviest rain. In south India, rainfall could increase by 18.5 mm per day with the Western Ghats expected to be battered the most,” said Rajib Maity, a professor of civil engineering at IIT Kharagpur, who led the study.

All these could be witnessed by the fag-end of this century, in the last three decades between 2071 and 2100. The researchers analysed data of Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation for close to five decades (1971 – 2017), considering the period between 1930 and 1970 as the base.

The results have been published in the Scientific Reports journal brought out by the Nature publishing group.

“Our analysis shows a change in the direction of the southwest monsoon winds blowing towards the east over the Indian Ocean. This directional change will intensify the already observed precipitation contrast in future between South and North India, and cause more extreme precipitation events in countries like Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia” Maity added.

The researchers said that the Indian Ocean Dipole – popularly referred to as the ‘Indian Nino’ because of its similarity to its Pacific equivalent – is intensifying which could lead to increase in rainfall activity throughout India.

The Indian Ocean Dipole refers to the difference in sea-surface temperatures in opposite parts of the Indian Ocean which, in turn, affects rainfall pattern.

As the Indian monsoon plays a crucial role in agriculture, which engages nearly half of the country’s population a possible shift in the rains, as projected by the IIT study, could have a significant impact on agriculture.

“South Asia, as we know, despite advances in irrigation systems, is highly dependent on the monsoons. Results of this study will be useful to the designers of water infrastructure and agricultural communities, especially in the southern parts of India and Himalayan foothills, to prompt a possible change in design criteria and agricultural practices including cropping pattern,” Virendra Tewari, director, IIT Kharagpur was quoted as saying in a statement.

R Krishnan, executive director, Centre for Climate Change Studies at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) said: “The possibility of such change can’t be ruled out but such projects need more research and analysis as the association between Indian Ocean Dipole and Monsoon is still not well defined.”

Unveiling Elections 2024: The Big Picture', a fresh segment in HT's talk show 'The Interview with Kumkum Chadha', where leaders across the political spectrum discuss the upcoming general elections. Watch now!

Get Current Updates on India News, Election 2024, Arvind Kejriwal News Live, Bihar Board 10th Result 2024 Live along with Latest News and Top Headlines from India and around the world.
SHARE THIS ARTICLE ON
Share this article
  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
    author-default-90x90

    Joydeep Thakur is a Special Correspondent based in Kolkata. He focuses on science, environment, wildlife, agriculture and other related issues.

SHARE
Story Saved
Live Score
OPEN APP
Saved Articles
Following
My Reads
Sign out
New Delhi 0C
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Start 14 Days Free Trial Subscribe Now
Follow Us On