The role of space in the Russia-Ukraine War - Hindustan Times
close_game
close_game

The role of space in the Russia-Ukraine War

Mar 04, 2022 10:07 PM IST

An escalation in space could cost more Ukrainian lives and leave Russian forces blind

The Russian special military operation launched against Ukraine is raging. Much of the action by forces on both sides is observable on land, in the air, maritime and cyber domains. Curiously, few — if any — details are emerging about the role of outer space in the conflict. 

Apart from chiding nations that have moved to impose sanctions and high-tech export controls, Rogozin was highlighting the impotence of Russia to the operational environment in outer space. (PTI) PREMIUM
Apart from chiding nations that have moved to impose sanctions and high-tech export controls, Rogozin was highlighting the impotence of Russia to the operational environment in outer space. (PTI)

However, Indian interest peaked when Russian State space company chief Dmitry Rogozin speaking of the International Space Station (ISS)’s fate said on social media that a 500-tonne chunk of the ISS could possibly fall to earth over India, China, the United States (US) or Europe. 

Apart from chiding nations that have moved to impose sanctions and high-tech export controls, Rogozin was highlighting the impotence of Russia to the operational environment in outer space. As a pioneering space power, Russia’s cooperation and non-belligerence in space are crucial to the safety of all space-faring nations and their assets in orbit.

In the context of the current crisis, it is eerily worrying that a Russian military communications satellite, the Meridian-4 has allegedly gone offline. Although it may not be a catastrophic loss for Russian warfighting capabilities, it represents a risk. There is a distinct possibility that If counterspace capabilities come into play, a lot of disruption can be inflicted on all sides, including non-belligerent and neutral nations. Interestingly, Rogozin has also drawn a line declaring that Russia can treat adversaries disabling its satellites and related space infrastructure as a just cause of war. 

The US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia both rely on data streams enabled by space-based Earth observation and navigation capabilities. The already stagnating advance of Russian forces would likely be hindered further if their access to navigation through their own high-precision military GLONASS and less capable civilian GPS navigation signals were cut off. 

This can also lead to further collateral damage and humanitarian catastrophe as Russia is increasingly stepping up the use of aerial munitions like cruise missiles and aircraft deployed ordnance. These weapons rely on precision guidance supplied by the same data streams enabled by satellites and other assets in orbit, knocking them out could lead to many more innocent lives being lost.

There are other threats like nations dazzling and degrading the remote sensing capability of adversarial satellites, which can result in miscalculations and escalation, especially when it comes to early warning systems. With the implicit Nuclear threat involved from the Russian side, things can go apocalyptic if a country’s nuclear “launch on warning” capability is compromised.

Generally speaking, any verification and attribution for counterspace activities rely heavily on either Space Situational Awareness (SSA) data being released by governments or amateur space watchers and astronomers. This makes military use of space a grey zone, especially with regard to intelligence and counter-intelligence activities by nation-States. 

Russian satellites have been in the past accused of snooping on and inspecting the US and French space assets during close passes and proximity operations. 

Russia also recently demonstrated a glimpse of its kinetic counterspace capabilities with a Direct Ascent Anti-Satellite (D-ASAT) weapon test in November 2021. Russia’s latest test left behind debris that poses a significant threat to safe operations of artificial space objects belonging to all space-faring countries. 

Destructive Anti Satellite (A-SAT) tests should be banned in peacetime, and any A-SAT use should be declared an act of war by international consensus. However, there is a clear and emerging need for countries to develop point defence capabilities against objects falling from space. 

Last year, China intentionally let a large chunk of its Long March 5B rocket return to earth in uncontrolled re-entry. The risky re-entry could have affected several artificial space objects and indeed smaller debris pieces could have caused loss to life and property on Earth. 

In the latest whitepaper on space, China indeed mentions defence against near-earth objects, this could mean asteroids that might be on a trajectory to hit the earth or large chunks of space debris. While India neither has a near-earth object defence capability, nor does it have plans to develop or acquire one, this represents a gap in India’s defence planning that should be debated and filled at the earliest.

India’s recently set up Defence Space Agency (DSA) is not involved in the current crisis but would presumably be a keen watcher as events unfold. The lessons from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war could be decisive for securing India’s own use of space in a future war. 

Aditya Pareek is a research analyst at the Takshashila Institution

The views expressed are personal  

Unveiling 'Elections 2024: The Big Picture', a fresh segment in HT's talk show 'The Interview with Kumkum Chadha', where leaders across the political spectrum discuss the upcoming general elections. Watch Now!

Continue reading with HT Premium Subscription

Daily E Paper I Premium Articles I Brunch E Magazine I Daily Infographics
freemium
SHARE THIS ARTICLE ON
Share this article
SHARE
Story Saved
Live Score
OPEN APP
Saved Articles
Following
My Reads
Sign out
New Delhi 0C
Friday, March 29, 2024
Start 14 Days Free Trial Subscribe Now
Follow Us On