IIT, Singapore medical school develop alternative model to assess Covid-19 situation in states - Hindustan Times
close_game
close_game

IIT, Singapore medical school develop alternative model to assess Covid-19 situation in states

New Delhi | ByPress Trust of India| Posted by Nandini
May 10, 2020 04:42 PM IST

According to the team, India will have 1.5 lakh COVID-19 cases in next 30 days as per logistic method and 5.5 lakh cases as per exponential method.

Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati and Singapore’s Duke-NUS Medical School have come up with an alternative model to analyse and predict the number of COVID-19 infected people in 30 days in different states of India.

(REUTERS)
(REUTERS)

The data-science model, developed by the team, is a combination of all three different models being used in the country at present.

Hindustan Times - your fastest source for breaking news! Read now.

The model predicts the cases as per logistics method and exponential method (prediction if the situation turns severe). The states are divided into three categories--moderate, severe and controlled. The model follows a different categorisation than the currently adopted Green Zone, Orange Zone and Red Zone classification. According to the team, India will have 1.5 lakh COVID-19 cases in next 30 days as per logistic method and 5.5 lakh cases as per exponential method.

“A report solely based on any one model can potentially mislead us. In an attempt to guard against this possibility, we have considered the exponential, the logistic, and the Susceptible Infectious Susceptible (SIS) models, along with the model-free daily infection-rate (DIR) using open-source data. We have interpreted the results jointly from all models rather than individually,” Palash Ghosh, Assistant Professor, IIT Guwahati told PTI.

The report is based on the growth of active cases in recent times, along with the daily infection-rate (DIR) values for each state.

“We have labelled a state as ‘severe’ if a non-decreasing trend in DIR values is observed over the last two weeks along with a near exponential growth in active infected cases, as ‘moderate’ if an almost decreasing trend in DIR values is observed over the last two weeks along with neither increasing nor decreasing growth in active infected cases, and as ‘controlled’ if a decreasing trend in the last two weeks’ DIR values is observed along with a decreasing growth in active infected cases,” Ghosh said.

“While analyzing the novel coronavirus infection data, considering our entire country to be on the same page may not reveal the right picture. This is so because the first infection, new infection-rate, progression over time, and preventive measures taken by various state governments and the common public for each state are different. We need to address each state separately. It will enable the government to utilize the limited available resources optimally,” he added. The death toll due to COVID-19 rose to 2,109 and the number of cases climbed to 62,939 in the country on Sunday, registering an increase of 128 deaths and 3,277 cases in the last 24 hours, according to the Union Health Ministry.

Unveiling 'Elections 2024: The Big Picture', a fresh segment in HT's talk show 'The Interview with Kumkum Chadha', where leaders across the political spectrum discuss the upcoming general elections.Watch now!

Get latest news on Education, Bihar Board 12th Result 2024 Live along with Board Exam, Competitive Exam and Exam Result at Hindustan Times. Also get latest Job updates on Employment News
SHARE THIS ARTICLE ON
Share this article
SHARE
Story Saved
Live Score
OPEN APP
Saved Articles
Following
My Reads
Sign out
New Delhi 0C
Friday, March 29, 2024
Start 14 Days Free Trial Subscribe Now
Follow Us On