Monsoon rainfall 43% deficient, likely to pick up pace this week

There is a 43% deficiency in monsoon rainfall all over the country as of Monday, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) scientists.

While this is partly because the monsoon arrived after a delay of seven days, on June 8, severe cyclonic storm Vayu that started developing on June 11 disturbed the monsoon flow and affected its normal advancement, they said.

On Sunday, the monsoon had reached Mangaluru in Karnataka. But by now the monsoon should have progressed up to Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand and some parts of eastern Uttar Pradesh, said K Sathi Devi, head of National Weather Forecasting Centre, Delhi.

According to IMD’s bulletin on Monday, cyclone Vayu has moved north-eastwards and weakened into a deep depression. The IMD scientists expect monsoon advancement to pick up again in 4-5 days. “Such a cyclonic storm disturbs the circulation pattern or flow of the monsoon. The storm has weakened now and we are expecting advancement to revive in the next 4-5 days,” Sathi Devi said. Most parts of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana haven’t received any monsoon yet, shows IMD’s monsoon advancement map.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some parts of Central Arabian Sea, Karnataka, some parts of south Konkan and Goa, Andhra Pradesh, parts of Tamil Nadu, West Bay of Bengal, northeast India, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, parts of Odisha in 4-5 days,” the IMD bulletin read.

“This kind of delay is unusual. Monsoon onset is often delayed but after that it progresses. This year there is both delay in onset and stalling of monsoon. It’s a combined effect of El Nino and Vayu,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president (meteorology and climate change), Skymet, a private weather forecaster.