Number theory: How to read today’s inflation numbers | Latest News India - Hindustan Times
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Number theory: How to read today’s inflation numbers

By, Hindustan Times, New Delhi
Jul 12, 2021 05:12 AM IST

Episodes of inflationary spike in India have often been driven by a sharp jump in non-core inflation.

The National Statistical Office (NSO) will release the June numbers for Consumer Price Index (CPI), India’s benchmark retail inflation measure, on Monday. A Reuters forecast of economists expects CPI to grow at 6.58% on a year-on-year basis in the month of June. If true, this will be the highest inflation number since the November 2020 value of 6.9%. This will also make June the second consecutive month when retail inflation will be higher than the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band of 6%. Here are five charts that can help make sense of the latest inflation numbers.

A Reuters forecast of economists expects CPI to grow at 6.58% on a year-on-year basis in the month of June. (Mint Photo)
A Reuters forecast of economists expects CPI to grow at 6.58% on a year-on-year basis in the month of June. (Mint Photo)
Core inflation in May was at 6.5% and the non-core component was at 6%.(Hindustan Times)
Core inflation in May was at 6.5% and the non-core component was at 6%.(Hindustan Times)
To be sure, international inflation for edible oil seems to have peaked in May 2021.(Hindustan Times)
To be sure, international inflation for edible oil seems to have peaked in May 2021.(Hindustan Times)
The inflation for the miscellaneous category grew at 7.5% in the month of May 2021, the highest value since March 2013.(Hindustan Times)
The inflation for the miscellaneous category grew at 7.5% in the month of May 2021, the highest value since March 2013.(Hindustan Times)
A stickiness or reversal in the declining trend in the last one week could generate additional headwinds on the domestic inflation numbers.(Hindustan Times)
A stickiness or reversal in the declining trend in the last one week could generate additional headwinds on the domestic inflation numbers.(Hindustan Times)
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  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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    Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. His weekly column for HT Premium Terms of Trade appears every Friday.

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