Pre-monsoon season to be warmer than normal in northwest India

Winter is officially over with the India Meteorological Department issuing a pre-monsoon or summer forecast advisory on Friday for the March-April-May season. The MAM season is likely to be warmer than normal over most parts of northwest, west and central India and some parts of peninsular India.

Above normal heat wave conditions are likely in the core heat wave (HW) zone during the season, the advisory added.

The average temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree C over northwest, west and central India and some subdivisions from south India. The average maximum temperature is likely to be warmer than normal by 1degree C over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Rajasthan and Arunachal Pradesh.

It is likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree C to 1 degree C over Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi (HCD), West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, East and West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidharbha, North interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala. The rest of the country is likely to experience near normal maximum temperatures (between -0.5 degree C and 0.5 degree C).

The season’s average minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by 1 degree C over Uttarakhand. It is likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree C to 1 degree C over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi(HCD), Arunachal Pradesh, East and West Rajasthan, East and West Uttar Pradesh, East and West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

There is about 43% probability of maximum temperatures in the core HW zone during March to May 2020 to be above normal. Core HW zone covers states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana and met subdivisions of Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

“Temperatures could be warmer than normal in the pre-monsoon season due to low pre-monsoon rains in northwest India. Sea surface temperatures are also slightly above normal which will contribute to higher summer temperatures,” Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather said.