Wet spell to bring widespread rain to central, west, N-W India this week

A wet spell commenced over central, west and parts of northwest India in association with a low-pressure area that formed over westcentral Bay of Bengal on Monday, India Meteorological Department (IMD)said.

A low-pressure area formed over northwest India and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal, off south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts. The low-pressure area and its remnants are very likely to move west-north-westwards during the next four or five days. The monsoon trough is lying south of its normal position, which is very likely to move to south of its normal position during the next four or five days.

A shear zone (zone of change in wind speed and direction) is likely to persist over south Peninsular India during the next four or five days. Due to these meteorological conditions, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely over Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh on Monday and Tuesday, and Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan and Gujarat till Saturday. Isolated extremely heavy rain (over 20cm) is also likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Maharashtra, north Konkan and Gujarat till Wednesday.

Rainfall activity is also likely to increase over most parts of northwest India with isolated heavy rain over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Jammu region and east Rajasthan till Friday. Very heavy rain is likely over Uttarakhand and east Rajasthan between Wednesday and Friday.

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“A low-pressure area has already formed off south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh, which will move inland and travel in the west-northwestwards direction, bringing heavy rain in its wake. We are expecting widespread and heavy rain over central India and the west coast during next three or four days. The system will also bring rain to northwest India because easterly winds will set in. There are scattered rains over northwest India mainly due to the monsoon trough but this will enhance further by around September 8. Even after the low pressure system weakens its cyclonic circulation, rains will continue,” explained K Sathi Devi, head, national weather forecasting centre, IMD. There is also likelihood of another low-pressure area forming over Bay of Bengal next week. “Development of that-low pressure area is being monitored. Some models are indicating that another low-pressure area will form,” she added.

Between 8.30am on Sunday and 8.30am on Monday, certain stations in coastal Andhra Pradesh recorded heavy rain including Vizianagaram-18cm, Srikakulam-13cm, Vishakhapatnam-7cm; in west Madhya Pradesh: Khargone-12cm; Sehore-10cm; In Uttarakhand: Chamoli-9cm; In East Rajasthan: Rajsamand-8cm; In Kerala: Vaikom-7cm etc.

There is a 9% rainfall deficiency over the country with 13% deficiency over central India; 13% over northwest India; 10% deficiency over east and northeast India and 10% excess over peninsular India. Over northwest India, while Delhi and Haryana have recorded 26% and 20% excess rains respectively; Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir have over 20% deficiency; Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh have 7% and 9% deficiency respectively.

There is likely to be above normal rainfall activity at over 110% of the so-called long period average or LPA in September, and while this will reduce the current monsoon rain deficiency of 9% over the country, overall monsoon rain (June 1 to September 30) will still be in the “lower end of normal category,” IMD said in its monsoon monthly forecast last week.