What dip in Delhi, Mumbai daily Covid cases may indicate: 5 points

The daily Covid-19 infections reported from Mumbai have settled after breaching the 20,000-mark. Delhi too on Friday reported a decline as its 24-hour tally fell below 25,000. Earlier in the day, Delhi health minister Satyendar Jain had said that the Covid-19 situation seems to be stabilising in the national Capital. Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal also said that there is no reason to worry, as hospitalisation and death rates remain low. "If corona cases begin to decline, we will relax the restrictions," Kejriwal said.

Here are 5 points to know about the present trend in Delhi and Mumbai

1. Satyendar Jain said the positivity rate keeps on changing, but the main factor is hospitalisation, which is low in the Capital. Delhi's case positivity rate on Friday rose above 30%. The dip in the 24-hour tally came a day after Delhi reported the highest-ever spike with 28,867 cases.

2. An official told PTI that in the last 24 hours, the number of testing has also dropped, which can be attributed to the change in testing guidelines. In an advisory issued earlier this week, the (central) government had said that asymptomatic patients undergoing surgical/non-surgical invasive procedures should not be tested unless warranted or symptoms develop.

3. Maharashtra on Friday reported 43,211 fresh infections out of which 11,317 infections were from Mumbai. Maharashtra health minister Rajesh Tope on Thursday said that the fluctuation in the number of daily infections was because of the change in testing protocols.

4. Experts are divided on whether hospitalisation or case positivity rate is the right indicator of a peak. "The number of daily cases and the positivity rate should be used to determine the peak. Hospitalisation depends on the criteria adopted for admission (in a particular region). Of course, hospitalisation is an important parameter for public health planning purposes, but not for describing a peak," Dr Chandrakant Lahariya said.

Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, vice chairman of the research cell of Kerala's unit of Indian Medical Association, said test positivity rate can not be relied upon as the sole parameter as it depends on the willingness of people to come forward and get tested.

5. Experts earlier said that the wave driven by Omicron will peak very soon and will decline very soon. The World Health Organization on Friday said Africa's 4th pandemic wave has started flattening after a six-week surge. The Omicron surge in India started with metro cities but the dip might be because of the fluctuation in testing numbers and not a statement on the wave yet, experts believe.